Trading

[pingers]

Anyone investing in ASX stock?

New to the game. Doing lots of readings, pod casts, youtube.

Would be cool to share knowledge and tips against other punters.

Cheers

[AHLUNGOR]

Anyone investing in ASX stock?

New to the game. Doing lots of readings, pod casts, youtube.

Would be cool to share knowledge and tips against other punters.

Cheers

May be you should start buying the Australian Financial Review ??

[kingqxxx]

Remember 10 yrs back there was a brothel business on asx. Don't remember what happened at the end

[Mitch2]

Very interested. Just dont know how to start.
The key when starting os to not have every eggs in one baskey, but to diversify.

[birch]

I've been trading shares since I was a teenager. Well into my 40s now and have to say I've no regrets using the ASX as almost my sole investment vehicle - other than my own home.
With less time and more money to manage, I subscribe to Rivkin and have done so for around 15 years. They are very suitable for new through to serious share investors and I now have all my portfolios under their advice. Including my SMSF.
Simple strategies well executed is how I could sum up their approach.

[cleetusvandamme]

Very interested. Just dont know how to start.
The key when starting os to not have every eggs in one baskey, but to diversify.

https://youtu.be/KmGnl7quDbY

[Christmas]

one of my bestie did it, made money gradually for a while ($4~5000 for like 3month LOL) then lost $70000 at once.

[God Member]

I guess it is all a matter of timing the market. They say that is hard to do.

[AHLUNGOR]

Anyone who had bought CSL a few years back before 2012 when it was around $30 and held on to it till today, would have a winfall of over $100 per share !

[gentlescream]

I've been trading shares since I was a teenager. Well into my 40s now and have to say I've no regrets using the ASX as almost my sole investment vehicle - other than my own home.
With less time and more money to manage, I subscribe to Rivkin and have done so for around 15 years. They are very suitable for new through to serious share investors and I now have all my portfolios under their advice. Including my SMSF.
Simple strategies well executed is how I could sum up their approach.

Got into the money game only in my late 20s, so been trying to keen up on education. Rivkin sounds interesting. Hopefully I can get to somewhere near your level when I'm in my 40s.

[gentlescream]

Anyone investing in ASX stock?

New to the game. Doing lots of readings, pod casts, youtube.

Would be cool to share knowledge and tips against other punters.

Cheers

I've been using a Bell Direct as a source for both research and as my broker. Recommended.

[Boney]

Another possibility is technical analysis or charting which requires software to analyse the market. I was making money out of it for a while until I started using a broker and taking his advice. Basically his job is to make money for his company not you, to protect yourself it is best to use a stop loss on your trades then if you go to work and the market drops you automatically exit with a limited loss. I am a bit dubious about trying to guess how companies are performing especially when Jamie Packer and Jodie Rich both were surprised when OneTel went under and they were on the board, another time I read a glowing report about Goodwin Fielders saying what a great company they were and everyone should by shares, 'you can't go wrong investing in food' I believe was the catch phrase they used. Two weeks later the whole operation imploded.

[pingers]

Maybe in the future once I'm educated. I've lots to absorb lol I think the paper is more for people who have an idea of how the market works.

Ah shit was supposed to quote reply lol

[pingers]

Very interested. Just dont know how to start.
The key when starting os to not have every eggs in one baskey, but to diversify.

Me neither.... I guess YouTube is a good start.

trading basics/trading bootcamp?

[pingers]

I've been using a Bell Direct as a source for both research and as my broker. Recommended.

Thanks for the recommendation.
Looks promising. Low brokerage fees. Multiple products

Currently using CommSec which is limited to just shares.

[birch]

one of my bestie did it, made money gradually for a while ($4~5000 for like 3month LOL) then lost $70000 at once.


Clearly there was a radical change in your friend's approach- seems to me trading transformed into punting and as all us blokes on this forum know punting only leads to a lighter wallet - plus share punting has very limited benefits otherwise!

Thats one of the key disciplines of long-term share trading - sure, big arbitrage opportunities do come up - but you don't risk more than you're prepared to lose investing in them...

Even when the GFC hit and I had virtually my entire wealth in shares (except my house) I only lost ~25% of the capital value on paper - all those top 50 ASX shares and a few hybrids still continued to pay fully taxed dividends and they became buying opportunities... The rest is history.

[Ted Hunter]

Google " Benjamin Graham "
Then establish a trading account
Bell Trading is a good place to start

[harrycd]

Don't invest more than 30% into Tech, just spend your time wishing you bought in a year ago.

[Golly]

Be patient is and you will be a success. The best way like to make money in
is insider trading and a excellent computer which trade near instantly and
you can get advantage over other's trading. I knew a somebody who had a friend
who he went to with university and he made a fortune by using inside knowledge
from a data analyst who for legal reasons i can't say which firm . The friend also
hired some top students who had honors in Actuarial degrees to work for him.
They were brilliant and the data they fed him made him even richer.
For tax reasons he now lives in Singapore. He tries to help me out but i value
his friendship so i don't use him and that's why we have been still friends even
though there is such a gulf in wealth between us. He was the friend who help
get my life back together after i got ill and that type of bond can not be broken.

[CunningLinguist]

Now that you have told the world I'm sure that ASIC will be paying you a visit just as soon as they subpoena your IP address from admin :)

[simplelife]

fuar #inb4feds #snitchesgetstitches

[Golly]

I am on a disability pension so no use anybody trying to sue me :cool:
However maybe the Gov or taxpayers not happy they are funding my
fortnightly 30 min session at 12 Bellevue :D
Surely they wouldn't take me only little luxury away from me ? :sweat:

[jeter]

Buy low, sell high?

[rhinopark]

Guys, beating the market is hard. The market is a zero sum game and your competition have staff with PhDs, minimum spends in the hundreds of thousands on market data and software, there are over 1,000 exchanges globally (check the Market Identification Code list) and regulators, there is a high frequency trading speed war etc. Most professional fund managers do not even exceed the S&P 500 benchmark. If they can't manage to even beat the benchmark, what chance has someone with a fraction of the training, resources and focus?

Of course if you want to spend years learning about the market, are willing to lose some money to your education, and have strong / competitive skills in relevant fields (eg fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis, software engineering, or some combination of the above) you might find it fruitful. But it's extremely rare. You also need some plausible theory of why you have an edge over the competition. It could be that you know a lot about Australian telcos because you worked as an executive in them for years and stick to trading telcos. Or maybe you know a lot about the blockchain because you read endlessly on it and confine your trading to blockchain-correlated companies (the few there are). Or perhaps you have only $50K to trade and you therefore can focus on microcaps as they're less researched by the pro players due to market impact. Or maybe you have a friend who has market sensitive information they'll give you and you are willing to trade on that and head off to jail when caught. But you need a rational theory of why you can beat the pros in a zero sum game.

More generally I recommend you read A Random Walks Down Wall Street (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street) for an accessible introduction to investment and what you should do instead. If you can't be bothered reading it, let me summarise it: buy index funds unless you have a realistic theory around why you'll have an edge. Most people say "I bought ABCDEFG share and it is up 50%, I am a genius!" and they forget ABCDEFG has a high beta to the market and the market went up 50% or more (so they were stupid buying ABCDEFG as then they had company-specific risk exposure whereas an index would have given the same return but without that company-specific risk).

[rhinopark]

The best way like to make money in is insider trading and a excellent computer which trade near instantly and you can get advantage over other's trading.

That doesn't make sense:

1. Insider trading is illegal. You go to jail for it. Even supposed "smart" insider trading like buying far-dated out of the money derivatives in the underlying for which you possess information is routinely caught and people are jailed.

2. If you have inside information and are dumb enough to trade on it, there is no requirement at all for ultra low latency trading. After all, you have information nobody else does. So you would gradually and cautiously scale into a position over time. If you try to do it instantly you will cause market impact, and the market markers will immediately pull liquidity because their algos assess someone has fundamentals they don't have so they derisk their inventory. So your position entry is screwed up big-time by impatience.

Most people who talk about this stuff would be infinitely better in an index fund. Indeed if you want free financial advice it'd be:

1. Spend less than you earn
2. Pay off your mortgage as first priority (your house is tax free and any interest is a guaranteed saving)
3. If you still have spare cash, salary sacrifice to superannuation to the maximum caps
4. Optimise tax (especially capital gains discounts)
5. If you still have spare cash, invest in index funds via appropriate tax-effective vehicles (eg family trusts)

Of course all of this assumes you want to be legal and sensible. If you just want a gamble, speculating on blockchain assets is more fun (double your money in weeks, but if / when the bubble pops it'll be nasty).

[God Member]

Even when the GFC hit and I had virtually my entire wealth in shares I only lost ~25% of the capital value on paper - all those top 50 ASX shares.

The overall market dropped 50% and you were only in shares that lost less than half that? Either you are Nostradamus or your paper loss was more than that.

[Golly]

Astute observation Mr Rhinopark. However this happened over a decade ago before
the GFC and my friend told me everyone was doing it and why not jump on the
bandwagon. Why do you think not one person on Wall Street never went to jail
over the GFC crisis .

[Gator]

I met a guy a while back who use to buy and sell full time. He would purchase and sell on the same day. He was obviously investing larger sums of money and as it creeps up he would sell. He seemed to make a living out of it but I guess you don't really hear about a lot of peoples' losses, just their gains.

[birch]

Guys, beating the market is hard. The market is a zero sum game and your competition have staff with PhDs, minimum spends in the hundreds of thousands on market data and software, there are over 1,000 exchanges globally (check the Market Identification Code list) and regulators, there is a high frequency trading speed war etc. Most professional fund managers do not even exceed the S&P 500 benchmark. If they can't manage to even beat the benchmark, what chance has someone with a fraction of the training, resources and focus?

Of course if you want to spend years learning about the market, are willing to lose some money to your education, and have strong / competitive skills in relevant fields (eg fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis, software engineering, or some combination of the above) you might find it fruitful. But it's extremely rare. You also need some plausible theory of why you have an edge over the competition. It could be that you know a lot about Australian telcos because you worked as an executive in them for years and stick to trading telcos. Or maybe you know a lot about the blockchain because you read endlessly on it and confine your trading to blockchain-correlated companies (the few there are). Or perhaps you have only $50K to trade and you therefore can focus on microcaps as they're less researched by the pro players due to market impact. Or maybe you have a friend who has market sensitive information they'll give you and you are willing to trade on that and head off to jail when caught. But you need a rational theory of why you can beat the pros in a zero sum game.
.


Not sure how you can say the market is zero sum game- it simply doesn't hold true to any shareholder in a company that makes a profit and therefore grows its valuation and pays dividends (that in Australia come to you with 30% tax pre paid!). Sure some companies don't make a profit and some valuations are out of step with reality - many times these simply present arbitrage opportunities - resulting in either negative or positive returns - which don't have to equal each other.

Share markets have existed for hundreds of years - they aren't just a domain for sophisticated traders and fast computers. I am neither and simply purchase good, transparent advice and act on it regularly.

It's very easy to make generalisations about successes or failures in the share market but whist ever a well regulated market exists within a well managed economy with well managed sovereign risks (such as Australia's) it's simply foolish to advise people to avoid such a diverse, flexible and efficient means to invest savings and earn tax efficient income.

[rooter]

Capital growth, regular dividends, fully franked dividends, tax breaks ... too easy.
No long term investor has ever lost money on the stock market.
The only people who lose are the ones who and panic and sell when things get rough.
Why invest money in the bank and get 2% return on your term deposit when you can buy shares in the bank and get an annual return of 10%?

[rhinopark]

Not sure how you can say the market is zero sum game

I should have been clearer, as we are talking about different things (trading vs investing). I am a big fan of "investing" and have the vast majority of my net worth in foreign and domestic financial markets. I encouraged people to read A Random Walk Down Wall Street because it explains in simple terms what to do if you wish to invest: buy an index fund (eg a Vanguard ETF on the local market), sign up for its distribution reinvestment plan, and pretty much leave it alone.

I was trying to discourage people from trying their hand at "trading". By trading I mean any activity where you're trying to pick the highs and lows, concentrate allocations in one company versus another, out-perform a market benchmark and so on. Read any academic paper, book or look at the "professional" funds management industry and you'll see the people who succeed in out-performing the market benchmark are extremely rare.

Does that mean there are no exploitable inefficiencies at trading timescales? Of course not. They're just hard to find, and if you find them, hard to profit from after execution costs. Retail level customers don't have the data or technology or market access (eg liquidity rebates, cheap brokerage etc). Institutional level customers have the data and technology and market access (and armies of PhDs working on it) but they need lots of trading and/or very big positions to amortise these expensive investments, and that means market impact costs kill most trade ideas. It's hard to out-perform the market and the chances someone reading this at home can out-perform the market are statistically improbable (not impossible, just improbable).

[rhinopark]

Why invest money in the bank and get 2% return on your term deposit when you can buy shares in the bank and get an annual return of 10%?

Well bank yields are closer to 7% [1], but yeah, you're right. Australian Deposit-Taking Institutions have government guaranteed capital up to $250K though [2], so that makes a difference to many people. Although if you want government guarantees, you'll get a better yield from a government bond-focused Vanguard fixed interest ETF [3]. Of course any income distributions are disaster from a tax perspective whereas franked dividends and discounted capital gains have considerably less bite....

[1] http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=CBA&region=aus
[2] https://www.fcs.gov.au/which-adis-are-covered
[3] https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/retail/ret/investments/product.html#/productType=etf

[CunningLinguist]

Investing in stocks is not a zero sum game, but trading in options is a zero sum game.

[mrzhang]

Yep.. investing and returns are a numbers game..

There is a new kid on the block and I've been offered this shite with MLM.. (multi level marketing) MBI Malaysia.. with high yield and return by some PWLs.. play as you go.. invest a sum and get credits towards doubling your money.. in other words ponzi and pyramid schemes playing on legit flash marketing.. dumb fucks are lapping it up and the founder recently got arrested and jailed for fraud.. in on going investigation..

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/22/mbi-investors-vent-anger-in-online-forum-in-china/

Seriously.. young and old think this way.. what hope is there when they invest.. especially the old who think they are gunna get rich.. doesn't experience in life teach you to not trust too good to be true money making machines..

Stupity.. no thanks..

[birch]

A classic example of an easy trade, using public information that simply isn't exciting enough for the bid end of town to engage in. - In case you've been living under a rock for the last two days you'd have noticed some baad press about the AVEO group - an ASX listed retirement home group that isn't diversified - at all. They've basically been sprung with unconscionsable conduct by the SMH and the ABC and this conduct underpins their main source of profits. The story broke before the sharemarket opened yesterday. Friday's close was above $3.00 - by midday it had dropped to $2.90 ish and was readily available to be shorted. I got in at $2.88 with a small bet (~7k) - I stopped myself out at $2.64, roughly 20 minutes later and made myself a few hundred bucks -or a couple of weeks of punting...

This isn't rocket science or sophisticated trading it's just a matter of reading the news, see that morning star et al are still saying this group is a Buy - but knowing two respectable news agencies have blown their dodgy business model out of the water and the business has no other income sources - there was (and is) no where for the share price to go, but down. And this is before the regulator catches up - after which there will be another shorting opportunity - if the price has anything more to give by that time.

Admittedly these gifts don't come every day - but low risk (stop losses mean I won't lose more than 2% in any trade and I never risk more than 2% of my capital in these one-off bets) ~8% profit in an afternoon is frankly on par or better than my day job.

Don't be afraid of trading shares - learn how to mitigate the risks first - then get some transparent, well regarded advice and follow it.

[harrycd]

Anyone else balls deep on $RAD? Looks like the merger is going to happen :o

[birch]

Anyone else balls deep on $RAD? Looks like the merger is going to happen :o

Not me - for no other reason than I tend to avoid the media trades.

[mkkid]

Buy low, sell high?

Now is the time.

[Climax598]

Now is the time.
What to buy? Experts

[Drax]

Buy a book called 'Trades About to Happen' by David H.Weis

[Climax598]

Buy a book called 'Trades About to Happen' by David H.Weis
No time to read dummy book. Just making somebody rich.

[punterz]

Traded in the ASX for several years, made more losses than gains. Never follow advices from the Motley Fool, indeed they are fools who will make you worse than fools.

Eventually I sold off all my shares and invested in commodities. Within months I made gains that would cover all of my ASX losses and pay off the personal loan that I drawed down for the investment earlier than the tenure, saving myself on interest payments.

I would love to use investments as my main source of producing income but I find that as long as our inflation rates isn't as bad as Indonesia, Zimbabwe or Uzbekistan, saving up money earned from having a job is still worth it. And follow the examples of the rich - claim back your taxes wherever you can, but please do it legally as the unclaimable taxes are being used to pay those who have lost their jobs amid COVID-19.

For now I'm not investing in anything just yet as I have sold off every single paper investments I used to have. But if I were to go back to it I would definitely stay with commodity rather than ASX or Dow Jones.

Wise words, a simple man like me agrees.

[SinSeeker]

A classic example of an easy trade, using public information that simply isn't exciting enough for the bid end of town to engage in. - In case you've been living under a rock for the last two days you'd have noticed some baad press about the AVEO group - an ASX listed retirement home group that isn't diversified - at all. They've basically been sprung with unconscionsable conduct by the SMH and the ABC and this conduct underpins their main source of profits. The story broke before the sharemarket opened yesterday. Friday's close was above $3.00 - by midday it had dropped to $2.90 ish and was readily available to be shorted. I got in at $2.88 with a small bet (~7k) - I stopped myself out at $2.64, roughly 20 minutes later and made myself a few hundred bucks -or a couple of weeks of punting...

This isn't rocket science or sophisticated trading it's just a matter of reading the news, see that morning star et al are still saying this group is a Buy - but knowing two respectable news agencies have blown their dodgy business model out of the water and the business has no other income sources - there was (and is) no where for the share price to go, but down. And this is before the regulator catches up - after which there will be another shorting opportunity - if the price has anything more to give by that time.

Admittedly these gifts don't come every day - but low risk (stop losses mean I won't lose more than 2% in any trade and I never risk more than 2% of my capital in these one-off bets) ~8% profit in an afternoon is frankly on par or better than my day job.

Don't be afraid of trading shares - learn how to mitigate the risks first - then get some transparent, well regarded advice and follow it.Which trading platform do you use Birch? Do you also subscribe to any trading advisors?

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

[mkkid]

my advice is to sell all your shares now - lock in your losses so that you reduce your tax bill. Then buy everything back in a weeks time.