The Melbourne Cup

[AHLUNGOR]

Just watched the Offsiders on ABC (with the VRC Handicapper on) and the panel basically tipped Fiorente and Sea Moon plus a few overseas horses for the Cup.

But I think the most comprehensive review of the Cup will be on Channel 7 at 12pm today !

Lets watch that before we share our own tips shall we ??

My early tips are:

Fiorente
Sea Moon
Fawkner
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Dear Demi

Lets see if I will change my mind after watching the program.

Cheers

[Travelmate]

Just watched the Offsiders on ABC (with the VRC Handicapper on) and the panel basically tipped Fiorente and Sea Moon plus a few overseas horses for the Cup.

But I think the most comprehensive review of the Cup will be on Channel 7 at 12pm today !

Lets watch that before we share our own tips shall we ??

My early tips are:

Fiorente
Sea Moon
Fawkner
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Dear Demi

Lets see if I will change my mind after watching the program.

Cheers

i am no expert but support last 3 selections

[rooter]

I'm gonna go for a roughie and put $100 on Green Moon ($50 each way) at around $40 odds.
It's done nothing since it won The Melbourne Cup last year but I have got a feeling he has been waiting for the 3,200M distance to do something special again.

[AHLUNGOR]

I'm gonna go for a roughie and put $100 on Green Moon ($50 each way) at around $40 odds.
It's done nothing since it won The Melbourne Cup last year but I have got a feeling he has been waiting for the 3,200M distance to do something special again.

Not a bad move!

Think Big did nothing the second year after his first cup win, and won the double!

Dorimus won the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double then went down by a nose to Might and Power on his second, didn't do much during the second year either!

At those odds, each way is good !

Cheers

[AHLUNGOR]

TAB has opened the betting in the Melbourne Cup:

Very early market with only $80,000 in the win pool:

The Top Seven Picks at this stage:

6 Fiorente @$8.20
8 Dandino @$9.80
15 Mount Athos @$12.10
22 Dear Demi @$14.00
18 Hawkspur @$15.30
10 Fawkner @$15.40
4 Sea Moon @$16.80

For the Fixed Odds:

6 Fiorente @$7.00
15 Mount Athos @$9.00
8 Dandino @$11.00
21 Verema @$14.00
17 Voleuse De Coeurs @$15.00
18 Hawkspur @$15.00
4 Sea Moon @$15.00

After watching the Channel 7's Cup preview yesterday and studied a bit of the overseas form guide:

I have changed my selections a bit:

My top 7 are:

6 Fiorente (second in the Cup last year, third in the Cox Plate)
10 Fawkner (won the Caulfield Cup! and loves Flemington 9 starts for 5 win and 3 placings)
8 Dandino (second in the Caulfield Cup, best run!)
22 Dear Demi (third in the Caulfield Cup and second in the Mackinnon)
15 Mount Athos (not the best from the overseas but Francesca is due for some change of luck plus C Williams)
21 Verema (Americain's trainer, won the last two over 3,000 & 2,800 - last 8 out of 9 runs were over 3,000 or longer, a true stayer!)
17 Voleuse De Coeurs (last start won the Irish St. Ledger 2,816 by 6 lengths)

Please share your thoughts and what's your selections ??

Good luck everyone, hope you back the winner !

Cheers

:smile:

[heatseeker]

Great work AHLUNGOR
If I win a million; we can go halves and buy a parlour from its current owners
Any suggestions ;)

[AHLUNGOR]

Great work AHLUNGOR
If I win a million; we can go halves and buy a parlour from its current owners
Any suggestions ;)

How much is your bank ??

John Singleton has $5 Millions riding on Dear Demi !!

[Escort]

Actually, how to play the horse racing?
Not quite sure about the "place".
Any bro can help?

[AHLUNGOR]

Actually, how to play the horse racing?
Not quite sure about the "place".
Any bro can help?

A place is when your horse runs first second or third, so you have three chances!

Some betting agencies are paying 4th or 5th place getters too!

Nothing like backing the winner though !

[Travelmate]

To me:

Winning is winning.
It does not matter whether it is Melbourne cup or a Maiden race in Dubbo.

Whichever is easier and less risk taking and winning is my ultimate goal....

[runrun]

Going to TAB tomorrow, any of the pro's here want to give us their pick?

[AHLUNGOR]

Going to TAB tomorrow, any of the pro's here want to give us their pick?


This is a confident bet :


Green Moon back-to-back cups. Put $1000EW at $41 and another $500EW at $36,

[lamb]

It's Fiorente all the way for me. That on the nose and a 6, 8, 10 trifecta.

[AHLUNGOR]

TAB has opened the betting in the Melbourne Cup:

Very early market with only $80,000 in the win pool:

The Top Seven Picks at this stage:

6 Fiorente @$8.20
8 Dandino @$9.80
15 Mount Athos @$12.10
22 Dear Demi @$14.00
18 Hawkspur @$15.30
10 Fawkner @$15.40
4 Sea Moon @$16.80

:smile:

Just an update on the tote, with 4.3M in the NSW TAB, these are the top 7:

6 Fiorente $7.20 very solid favourite
8 Dandino $11.10 the local punters must like his great run in the Caulfield Cup
4 Sea Moon $11.80 firming up due to the Lloyd Williams factor
22 Dear Demi, $13.30 most consistent form in all the lead ups - much better than Jezebelle when she won for Chris Munce
15 Mount Athos, $14.00 could be the first Cup winner for Cumani and Williams
18 Hawkspur, $14.80, can Jimmy Cassidy brings up Cup no. 3 ?
10 Fawkner, $15.40m a Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup double will not surprise me as this horse loves Flemington !

Very interesting to see that the top seven selections in fact has not changed since yesterday.

Good luck everyone

cheers

:cool2:

[AHLUNGOR]

Well, the jockeys have been introduced, and Lucy has sung the national anthem!

The horses are ready, the bets are in and the bubbly is free flowing.

Good luck every one

Fiorente, Dear Demi and Mount Athos! May one of you win it!

Cheers

[AHLUNGOR]

Just watched the Offsiders on ABC (with the VRC Handicapper on) and the panel basically tipped Fiorente and Sea Moon plus a few overseas horses for the Cup.

But I think the most comprehensive review of the Cup will be on Channel 7 at 12pm today !

Lets watch that before we share our own tips shall we ??

My early tips are:

Fiorente
Sea Moon
Fawkner
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Dear Demi

Lets see if I will change my mind after watching the program.

Cheers

I should have stick with my original tips !! I think I can do the forms as well as all those bloody experts !!

A $60 box 6 horses trifecta would have returned me $1,906.55 WTF !!!

No trifecta win this year, wins on Fiorente and a place on Mount Athos though. A good win, but could be 2 Grand better off !!

Hope you guys have better luck !!

Cheers

:fire:

[heatseeker]

Great tipping Ahlungor, and commiserations
I'm imagining the $1906.55 you could have won would have been put to good use, maybe shouting a few guys for group activities?

Could you explain the box trifecta (choose 6 horses?)
Maybe with your tipping prowess next year I try it out
You will get a commission of course

[runrun]

Thanks for your tips!

They turned out good and I went in on Fiorente with smaller places on some of your others.

So worked out well in front.

[AHLUNGOR]

Great tipping Ahlungor, and commiserations
I'm imagining the $1906.55 you could have won would have been put to good use, maybe shouting a few guys for group activities?

Could you explain the box trifecta (choose 6 horses?)
Maybe with your tipping prowess next year I try it out
You will get a commission of course

OK Brother, for a boxed trifecta, you can bet on a number of horse (3,4,5,6,7..... and so on) and "boxed" them together, as long as any of your boxed horses run in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd you win.

The cost will be :

3 horses = $6.00
4 horses = $24.00
5 horses = $60.00
6 horses = $120.00
7 horses = $210.00 and so on.

The way to calculate the cost:

3 horses = 3x2x1 = 6
4 horses = 4x3x2 = 24
5 horses = 5x4x3 = 60
6 horses = 6x5x4 = 120

that's based on $1.00 - or you can bet half a unit, so for six horses, instead of betting $120, you can bet 1/2 = $60.00 and when you win, you get 50% of the pay out, in today's Cup Trifecta, it pays $3,813.10 so half of that would be $1,906.55

Better luck next year

Cheers

:miao:

[heatseeker]

Wonderful work Ahlungor
You should have been a professional bookmaker
I'm ready for the next Melbourne Cup now

[AHLUNGOR]

To wrap things up, I just want to say this, on hind sight, this year's Cup trifecta is not that hard to pick.....................lol

All the place getters are tried and proven stayers from this race:

So, if we could wind back the clock to 2.45pm yesterday, we should have boxed 5 horses for the Trifecta @$60 and collected a cool $3,800

1. Dunadun, won in 2011, wasn't suited last year
2. Green Moon, last year winner
3. Red Cadeaux, went down by a nose in 2011 and also wasn't suit last year.
6. Fiorente, came second last year, in good form
15. Mount Athos, came fifth last year and should be a lot closer.

And if you think you could win the trifecta, then you might as well take these 5 horses in 1st/2nd/3rd and take the field for the 4th leg and put a bet in the First 4, cost of 1,260 may be too much but you go flexi and just bet $126 for a 10% stakes, the payout is $100K, so you can collect a cool $10,000!!

Let's keep this thought, I'm just saying this.

On hind sight, everyone is a genius ...................lol

Until next year.

Cheers

:cool2:

[heatseeker]

Ahlungor
So we can safely assume the Melbourne Cup is a fair race, with no jockey / trainer collusion
: )

[AHLUNGOR]

Ahlungor
So we can safely assume the Melbourne Cup is a fair race, with no jockey / trainer collusion
: )

Not in the Cup Mate !!

To win at all cost, absolutely, but funny business, I doubt it.

Think about it, for those people who have the money, like Lloyd Williams, John Singleton, Aga Khan and the Goldophin stables, they just want to win the Cup for the thrills and satisfactions. And they would have invested 10 times more than the prize money.

Singo would collect $10M from the bookies if Dear Demi win, look at where she ended up - I would have collected over a grand too............lol, Lucky I got Fiorente and Mount Athos !!

And look at where the six Lloyd Williams horses have finished yesterday !! And he's got 1/4 of the field.

And with $6.5 millions in prize money, $3.5M to the winner, will you give an inch to your rivals if you have a chance to win, I don't think so. In fact, I think in all the big carnival and group races, no one is gonna to throw it !!

A mid week maiden race in the country track worth $1,000 to the winner - that I'm not so sure.

Cheers

:cool2:

[rooter]

Ahlungor
So we can safely assume the Melbourne Cup is a fair race, with no jockey / trainer collusion
: )

The Melbourne cup would be the worst race to try and fix with all the public and media attention on it.
Logistically its a bad race to try and fix too because there are 24 horses in it.
The most suitable races to fix are low profile races at country race tracks with less than 10 horses in them.
Even then its not that easy these days but I am sure it still happens.
In the 1950s -1980s race fixing was very common especially with the very corrupt NSW state governments.

[heatseeker]

Thanks Ahlungor and rooter
We learn something new every day!
Great post - very informative

[rooter]

To wrap things up, I just want to say this, on hind sight, this year's Cup trifecta is not that hard to pick.....................lol

All the place getters are tried and proven stayers from this race:

So, if we could wind back the clock to 2.45pm yesterday, we should have boxed 5 horses for the Trifecta @$60 and collected a cool $3,800

1. Dunadun, won in 2011, wasn't suited last year
2. Green Moon, last year winner
3. Red Cadeaux, went down by a nose in 2011 and also wasn't suit last year.
6. Fiorente, came second last year, in good form
15. Mount Athos, came fifth last year and should be a lot closer.

And if you think you could win the trifecta, then you might as well take these 5 horses in 1st/2nd/3rd and take the field for the 4th leg and put a bet in the First 4, cost of 1,260 may be too much but you go flexi and just bet $126 for a 10% stakes, the payout is $100K, so you can collect a cool $10,000!!

Let's keep this thought, I'm just saying this.

On hind sight, everyone is a genius ...................lol

Until next year.

Cheers

:cool2:

Yeah, I came pretty close following the same logic and boxed 1. Dunaden, 2. Green Moon, 6. Fiorente, and 15 Mount Athos. Cost me $24
Dammit I overlooked Red Cadeaux !!
I think the trifecta paid around $3500!
That would have been nice. I would be in the spa room at Ginza right now doing a double!

[AHLUNGOR]

Yeah, I came pretty close following the same logic and boxed 1. Dunaden, 2. Green Moon, 6. Fiorente, and 15 Mount Athos. Cost me $24
Dammit I overlooked Red Cadeaux !!
I think the trifecta paid around $3500!
That would have been nice. I would be in the spa room at Ginza right now doing a double!

Yeah, all my exortic bets were stuffed up by the no. 3 too!! I have got the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th horses in most of my tickets - of course, without no. 3, the pay out will be much less, but a lot more winnings for me thats for sure and I would have been inside Moon at the Penthouse by 1.30pm today................lol

And I was kicking myself when I got home last night, when I looked at the license plate on my little car: XXX 63X.................Fuck me !! :fire:

[heatseeker]

"I think the trifecta paid around $3500!
That would have been nice. I would be in the spa room at Ginza right now doing a double!"

With plenty of change left over...
So two Diamond Class for two hours with spa filled with champagne and unable to walk afterwards?

[Chucky]

No punting for Chucky for a while - I went hard for Lloyd Williams horses, net lose around $4000 yesterday :(

[heatseeker]

Commiserations Chucky
Two Diamond Class J-girls for two hours, with spa filled with champagne, and unable to walk afterwards, may help ease the mental trauma

[AHLUNGOR]

No punting for Chucky for a while - I went hard for Lloyd Williams horses, net lose around $4000 yesterday :(


Yeah, some win some, some win plenty and some could have won a lot more!!

John Singleton probably didn't win anything yesterday.

At the Call of the Card on Monday in the Crown Casino, Tom Waterhouse wanted to put a Million dollars on Fiorente @$7.50, no bookies would take him, he eventually placed a bet for $200,000 only - so he collected $1.5M, could have been $7.5M - It's $6.00 million easy money he didn't win !!

But I think he was a very happy man come yesterday 3.05pm !!

Cheers

:cool2:

[AHLUNGOR]

Kate Upton, an absolute winner on Cup Day at Flemington !!


http://im.rediff.com/sports/2013/nov/05hat1.jpg

[heatseeker]

"Tom Waterhouse wanted to put a Million dollars on Fiorente @$7.50, no bookies would take him, he eventually placed a bet for $200,000 only"

How on earth can a man be so confident?
Inside information?

Wonder what he's spending his winnings on?

[rooter]

The favourite winning is bad news for bookmakers like Tom.
He would have paid out a few million $ to punters for sure.
Backing the favourite himself with another bookmaker and collecting a cool $1.5M would take the sting out of it but he probably still lost overall on the Melbourne Cup.

[AHLUNGOR]

"Tom Waterhouse wanted to put a Million dollars on Fiorente @$7.50, no bookies would take him, he eventually placed a bet for $200,000 only"

How on earth can a man be so confident?
Inside information?

Wonder what he's spending his winnings on?

Just ask Toms wife Koda, she looks like she knows where to spend money !

[AHLUNGOR]

Well, there is nothing more to say about the Melbourne Cup here, but we do have a final day of racing for the Cup carnival.

Two more group 1 races to complete and I think the favourites should be too strong again:

Lucky Nine 天久 - The Hong Kong Champion sprinter in the 1200M @$4.20

And

Boban at the Emirate Stakes 1600m @$3.50

Good luck everyone


Cheers